Sunday, January 17, 2016

Patrick's Diary - 1/14/2015

On Thursday Morning, I remember I went to work pretty early, so came back home not too late. After dinner, I took a rest for an hour, then went to gym to work out. I hadn't done it since Sunday, and didn't do much that night either. When I filmed myself in the car after the workout, I noticed that I wasn't sweaty as much as usual. 
Coming back home, I started reading Chapter 4 of Economics Rules. However, I paid attention to a tweet on my cell that Republican Debate had been held on Thursday night. At that moment, it was already 10pm, so it obviously had been ended. I turned onto CNN anyway, but didn't see anything related to it, moved to the Fox News, I viewed the replay. Watching several minutes without catching the primary messages of this debate, I turned it off to sleep. Yes, I was getting tired and sleepy. 

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Patrick's Diary - 1/13/2016

I drove my dad to Virginia Mason for an annual eye exam he hadn't done for 9 years since he had had cataract surgery in Beijing before he emigrated to the States to live with me. The result was very good. Dropping him back home, I started my journey on I-405 to the office. The traffic was so messy, which took me one hour and a half to pull my van into our parking lot. 
It's another intensive day due to the nature of the beginning of the new year. After coming back home, I actually switched from movie channels to CNN back and forth for a while before having dinner, then fell into sleep until 15 minutes ago. Now, it's 4:16 in the morning on Thursday, I am going to take shower after wrapping up the diary and head out on road. 

I had noticed my trading account dropping another 8% in the afternoon when I glanced it on my cell phone, then figured out GPRO releasing very pessimistic forecast for its fourth quarter financial performances. Though I lose 75% of the value on it on paper, it's still a piece of shit compared to what I have forgone in my whole life. No, I am not happy but it's just a very small unpleasant part of my life. My hesitation is if I really want to start making efforts to save this account or keep doing something immaterialistic but fun in my spare time, such as watching movies and sports or reading books. As I shared on WeChat with my college buddies, I had saved my trading account three times in the last two decades: Holding PALM to lose almost all value to 700 bucks, then buying and selling several stocks including SINA, AKAM, etc for a period of time to get the account value back to 20K; Betting on Call options on ZNGA to lose almost all value to 2000 bucks, then holding long term call options on FB to make 40K eventually; I forget how I did it for another time but only remember that turnaround started with doubling my account value within 3 hours by trading BIDU on its debut. I am also proud of my gains in my IRA account, which has grown 3000% since 1998 through the gains in a series of stocks including RHAT,VMW,APPL,GRPN,Z,FB, etc. 
GPRO might be another securities' fraud but investors are never able to get justice because of the nature of this business. You want to take risks on a small portion of your money and are prepared to lose every penny. This is always my strategy. However, I do have proven records to turn around from ground zero if I want. For example, I can buy a Hero4 and wear it to film when I practice soccer at Lynnwood High every weekend, kids even some of the professionals will learn my Free Kick techniques on both foot. 
Ok, it's payday, which will help me cover some of the payments I made last week for my son's tuitions, dorm expenses and dinning account. Oh, I forgot to mention that my son called me yesterday morning to mention that he wouldn't need me to pick him up to be back home this weekend again because he would prepare for his Biopsychology exam. He seems really interested in Psychology. If he decides to pursue it as his major, I totally support. I told him the most important factor for pursuing a major is that he really has passion on it, though I wish he could become an economist. 

Without picking him up and dropping him off, I can focus on watching BPL and NFL Divisional Playoff all the time this weekend. 

I didn't have time to read Chapter 3 of Economics Rules last night but will do tonight. It's 4:47 AM now, still pretty early. 

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Patrick's Diary - 1/12/2016

Coming back home past 7:00 pm, I had a quick dinner and went to bed to fall into semi-sleep until 2:00 am on this Wednesday morning. Turning off the rooflight but on lamp on nightstand, I resumed reading Chapter 2 - The Science of Economic Modeling of Economics Rules and finished it an hour later. After another 2 hours and a half sleep in dark, I got up and took shower under barely warm water because my dad had used a lot of hot water earlier, which caused the water in the tank much colder than normal. However, I want to write up my review for this chapter before going out:
Economists call Economics a science because they claim they put forward a hypothesis first, then build a model to prove it. Per author, actually, the new model is built because the old models are not able to have the hypothesis proved. The First Fundamental Theorem of Welfare Economics may be the foundation of modern economics model, which proves the theory of the perfect competitive markets. It also verifies Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand". Combined with David Ricardo's Principle of Comparative Advantages, both of them signify the role of models to have economics hypothesis proved. 

Intuition doesn't always work in the world of economics. For instance, one industry goes down domestically because of its growth in other countries, workers in that industry seem losing jobs or getting lower pays, however, the fact is the global growth stimulates the economic growth domestically as well. Highly skilled workers in this sunset industry can find jobs in new areas with even higher pays. The General Theory of Second Best proves this very well.

The very important and inspiring point the author raises is that seniority, hierarchy and authority don't work in the world of Economics as they do in other social sciences because the role of scientific modeling enables anyone to challenge existences, establishments and precedences. Yes, Economics is a science, closer to physical or natural science than social science. Oh, this is my comment.

Due to a thought earlier on Tuesday, I recall that I ever considered Multivariate Nonlinear Regression Model an universal model for any economic issues. The process may be:

  • Lock the issue;
  • Define the variables;
  • Collect the data of each variable;
  • Formulate a Multivariate Nonlinear Regression Equation through depicting the collected data;
  • Test the validities of the equation through thousands sets of equivalent data;
  • Formalize the model through a full documentation process.
I will keep developing this economic thought going forward.

Of course, I remember Seahawks to be in Charlotte on Sunday...

Monday, January 11, 2016

Patrick's Diary - 1/11/2016

Monday is always a busy day. I started at 6:30 am, however, business wasn't the primary reason. I needed to head home to catch National Championship game of college football, it was the truly season finale. 

The game was played very competitively by both teams. Clemson's offenses were very accurate but Bama's attackings were even more powerful. In 2nd half, Clemson's defensive players seemed not able to stop Bama's running games. Ok, College Football is wrapped up for this season, fans have to wait for 9 months. 
Good thing is Sounders' schedules were released last week, I plan to go to Centurylink Field to watch one match per month at least. 
I started reading the 2nd chapter of Economics Rules but didn't finish it. I will wrap it up tomorrow night, then write my reviews. 

Patrick's Diary - 1/10/2016

Waking up at 7:00, I figured FA Cup being televised on Fox Sport 1. Watching the first match Chelsea taking a lower level club, I observed it not an easy match for BPL team. 
I had found that beer bad been run out at home on Saturday, so drove out to 7-11 to buy some because I wanted to drink it while watching Seahawks' game. It's very chilly but sunny on the way to the gas station.
Grabbing 2 big cans of beer for me and 2 burgers for my parents because I didn't plan to have them cooking since I could eat pizza left over from Saturday, I walked out to sit into my van. A lovely dog was standing outside the store to wait the owner. 
Before driving back home, I took a route through Lynnwood High School to view teens practicing soccer in two of the three fields. My original plan was to practice soccer before Seahawks' game would kick off but changed my mind after noticing FA Cup matches on FS1. My son was so lucky during those 4 years at Lynnwood High before he graduated in 2014. It only took him 3 minutes to walk to his classroom every day. Now, it might even take him much longer time to go to his classrooms from dorm at college. 
Watching the 2nd FA Cup match in the living room, I witnessed Tottenham equalizing it with Leicester. I didn't think manager of Leicester was happy with the result. Kane's PK was almost saved by Leicester's keeper but it went through just inches above the keeper's fingertips. 
Due to the freezing weather, both teams didn't play the game effectively. it had been a low score game through the end. At the last moment, Vikings' kicker missed the field goal to send Seahawks to Charlotte. I found this clip on Youtube this Vikings' fan filmed. He must be so surprised.
Green Bay won over Redskins easily at the end though the latter came back to retake the lead for a while in 2nd half. Green Bay would go to play Cardinals in Arizona. 
I planned to practice soccer after the 2nd game but the sky already became so dark. Taking a shower and having a brief dinner, I started watching Far Away from the Madding Crowd adapted from Thomas Hardy's novel. 
It's Golden Globe night but the presentation was delayed in West Coast. However, I switched to watch it with only a few minutes late. Martian won a big prize and Leo was crowned best actor. 
It's an entertaining weekend with so many games, matches, movies and shows. 

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Patrick's Diary - 1/9/2016

Getting up early to stop by McDonald's to have big breakfast and hot cakes, of course, a large cup of coffee, I caught up all calories I had lost on Friday because I nearly had meals. Not working out much at gym, I drove back home before 9 am because I needed to take shower, then drove my parents to buy groceries. 

Dropping my parents at Ranch 99, I kept driving to Costco to buy other stuff. Picking up a gourmet pizza, I planned to have it as dinner. 

My mom bought some chinawares at the store next to Chinese Medicine store. The manager at this store told my parents that the rent was too high to make profits, so they were clearing the stocks and would close the business. That guy was very nice to help my mom walk to the van because my mom wasn't very mobile due to chronicle legs' pains.
My son didn't come back home, so we could decide whatever we wanted to eat for lunch. Driving through local routes, I parked the van in front of Hong Kong Dim Sum where we hadn't come for months. Their dim sum is pretty delicious. 
Briefly chatting with two neighbors about NFL Wildcard games at mail track, I went back to my bedroom to start watching one of AFC wildcard games: Chiefs at Texans. The latter's Quarterback threw five interceptions, of course, they lost at home. Alex Smith performed normally, KC shut out Texans. 
The following game was in Cincinnati. The harsh rains played a damaging role to have both sides playing ineffectively. Bengals almost won the game until they messed it up by themselves. Big Ben came back to win the game after shoulder injury. Bengals' fans were very intimidating but it was a contact sport, which could end up very ugly anywhere. It's normal to see fans pissing around in the parking lot in East Coast and some cities in Midwest, at least, it's my impression in old years.
I did bake the pizza for dinner and my parents liked it as well. 
I planned to watch a sci-fi movie scheduled to replay at 11:30 pm but became pretty sleepy. Eventually, I decided to sleep. 

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Patrick's Diary - 1/8/2016

I got up at 4 am and arrived at the office before 6:30 am. Coming to the front desk at the clinic, I was joked "Frequent Flyer" because in the past month, I had been there 3 times, 2 for my mom, 1 for my dad and this time was for myself. However, I was told no appointment being set up when I checked in. It's so odd because I rescheduled my appointment from December 17th to today. I still remember my conversation with the person at appointment hotline. That guy was very impatient. I recall that I said: "Can you do me a favor or is this too much?" when I finally rescheduled my appointment to January 8th. I wanted to keep my professional manner to talk to him then because I was in my office and coworkers could hear what I was saying, otherwise I would have fought on the phone with him. 

I had to have my appointment rescheduled to next Friday. If necessary, I would ask my conversation with their appointment hotline retrieved because it was recorded due to their procedure. 

I was pretty tired after coming back home, so lied in bed for a while before the dinner. After it, I came back to bed to read a novel briefly, then fell into sleep.