Patrick's Diary - 2/7/2016

I was planning to read Chapter 6 of Economics Rules to finish the last piece of review of this book but became very sleepy after only finishing two pages. So I went to bed in  the reading room so early without writing up my diary. 

Watching the last 30 minutes of the first televised BPL match, I missed the two goals Arsenal scored in the first half. At the end, I noticed Ozil's image being presented on the screen for quite a while, he must score the goal earlier. Yes, catching those two goals on post-match highlights, I learned he did score the first one for Arsenal. 

Going down to the living room, I watched the entire match in which Chelsea hosted Manchester United. It's disappointing for the guests to be equalized in injury time. Lingard's earlier goal was perfect, though Chelsea's keeper had saved several, he wasn't able to save this one going into his left upper corner. However, forever frustrating Diego Costa scored the equalizer at his second effort. 

Not having gone to the gym for two weeks due to the bad cold, I finally went there to work out. Feeling a little bit of weakness on my body, I only walked on treadmill for half an hour, rode the bike for 20 minutes and lift weight for 150 times. I felt so greatly. 

On my way home, I noticed the sky became light cloudy of which was light sunny earlier when I drove to gym. It could still be judged nice weather in early February in Seattle anyway. 

Turning into the small square where the coffee kiosk was positioned. I ordered a 16 oz latte. Though I said to the lady at the open window Grande Latte, she understood what the size I wanted.

Almost the whole day events of Super Bowl 50 were on CBS, I had been away from the TV screen from time to time to do other things until the song of America the Beautiful was sung by Army Band when I started watching entirely on the big screen in our living room.

Lady Gaga's National Anthem was performed so enthusiastically. My mom was attracted to come over from the kitchen to ask me who Gaga was. It's a wonderful start of the bowl game.

The game itself wasn't very exciting, as I said, no one wanted to spoil Manning's legacy. As one of the most hardworking and influential players in NFL history, he deserved another ring before being inducted into Home of Fame many years later. Super Bowl comes and goes every year, Panthers have a lot of chance in future and Newton is still young. 

I don't know how many viewers watching Super Bowl purely because of Pepsi Halftime Performance, it's a must-see tradition Americans favor. 

Weekends ended. 

Patrick's Diary - 2/6/2016

Top ranked Leicester played runner-up Manchester City this morning, the dark horse may be crowned BPL champion at the end of this season. If so, it will be a shocking news given Leicester not owning super stars as far as I am aware of. 

I skipped first half of the second match but caught the second half on big screen in our living room. Tottenham eventually scored a textbook goal. 

It would be Chinese Lunar New Year's Eve on Sunday, I drove my parents to Ranch 99 Super Market to buy groceries while my son was sleeping at home. After coming back from Costco, I found my parents had finished shopping. Wow, they filled two carts today, which cost my credit card billed 450 bucks. So many shoppers were inside the markets, I could also tell so many cars in the parking lots when I was waiting my parents to come out. The shopping carts were all run out of. 

When my dad and I loaded the groceries into the trunk, my mom heavily fell onto the cemented ground. She had very weak legs, so didn't stand firmly when turning around after chatting with someone. At her age of 79, it's very scary. However, she managed to only get minor muscle pain on her left arm. 

Before going home to pick up my son for our routine lunch, I stopped by Licensing office to pick up the renewed tab for my caravan. Being asked whose name being on the register by the clerk, I just realized that my ex-wife's name was still listed on it as the primary. It had been since we bought it brand new in 2000. It's not a big deal, so I had never had it changed to my name exclusively. 

Next, I stopped at eyecare store to pick up my son's contact lenses and just learned that our vision insurance carrier was changed, so I couldn't get 120 bucks benefits immediately. I couldn't remember I received any notification for this change at the beginning of the year, so had to find it out on Monday. I was told that I supposed to receive a new number from this new insurance company but I never got it. It's possible I threw the letter away as a junk mail. 

My mom didn't want to go to the lunch due to the incident earlier, so I drove my dad and son to New Star Seafood Restaurant to have a delicious lunch to celebrate Chinese Lunar New Year in advance. 

After the lunch, we dropped my son back to his dorm because he needed to finish heavy homework and prepare for an exam to be taken on Monday. In addition, he loved staying on campus because it was so convenient for him. He planned to live in this dorm through graduation scheduled in 2018.

Coming back home, I had been staying in bed until an hour ago. Watching politics on CNN, I learned GOP Debate to be held on ABC. Listening to the candidates' arguments, I figured GOP candidates fighting each other pretty harshly tonight. I wasn't interested in Trump's campaign but assumed him being set up to lose Iowa. I hoped him to win New Hampshire to teach all politicians a lesson. 

$TWTR planned to implement algorithm as early as next week, which would manipulate the tweets. I want it to keep real time, otherwise it would lose its competitive advantage. 

After pausing for almost two weeks due to the cold I caught during the weekends before the last, I read the Chapter 5 of Rodrik's Economics Rules - When Economists Go Wrong. Two classic errors economists generally make are:

• Errors of Omission: Author used 2008 Financial Crisis as an example to illustrate that economists were overconfident in the models of Supply and Demand, Efficient Market Hypothesis, ect but omitted the influences of Psychology and Sociology. This reminds me that I repeatedly debate with others in early 2000 that US economic system had been fully efficient, which could be adjusted by itself sufficiently. So I didn't believe there would be any significant recessions in future. My perception was misled by my error of omission then;
• Error of Commission: Author argued that economists attempted to apply relatively universal models to stimulate economy in Latin America, such as free market without government interventions, which didn't succeed. His conclusion is Model being selective. As I shared, I still believe a universal economics model to having all global issues cured being possible. Of course, a universal economics system has to be established all over the world. This won't happen any time soon. However, that selective models have specific issues resolved isn't the ultimate solution, otherwise Economics couldn't be defined as a complete subject of science. 

Author uses "Hedgehogs" and "Foxes" to distinguish two types of Economists and advocates more Foxes to deal with specific economics issues. My goal is to discover a universal solution but it has to be based on a universal system. Am I a Hedgehog? 

Patrick's Diary - 2/5/2016

I did plan to go to gym to work out at 5:00 AM but decided to stay in bed to store enough energy for the day of work. A firm downgraded $TWTR, this has become a very ridiculous behavior recently. It's very obvious that $TWTR improves its earnings and returns but Wall Street is still intentionally picky on its less meaningful users' growth. For a going concern, it's more important to have its operations getting on track than indirect revenue driver developed. Yes, $TWTR former management team seemed not focusing on business development but driving stock prices higher in short term to sell shares to exit. However, it's one of the most popular social media platforms of which won't be out of the business any time soon. It will be another turnaround story. 

$LNKD followed the suit to pop gloomy outlook, its stock price dropped by more than 40%. It probably is the deepest one day drop in entire stock markets in a decade. Its management eventually found this opportunity to get down to the ground. As I mentioned a couple of years ago, its stock price was far ahead of the valuation, so wouldn't grow for many years. Now, it gives a new opportunity for new investors.

Gains on $FB were also almost wiped out after strong earning release. The markets became so crazy today, you could smell the blood back in late 90s, though it is much more rational now. 

$GPRO has been stabilized. Buckling the market trend, it tried to come back above 10 bucks level and eventually succeeded with the help of $MSFT's license deal. I am seeing more and more meaningful partnerships and alliances to be formed with other parties. In addition to PGA and NHL, you may see NFL, MLS, MLB, FIFA, NBA, Olympics to join the forces. 

My son asked me to pick him up at 6:00 PM, so I didn't go to the office until 8:30 AM. It's pretty late compared to my routine. However, he called me around 3:30 PM to tell that he just had midterm for Statistics, though he could have resolved all the problems, there were too many to complete. Per his observation, none of the classmates finished every problem due to the time constraint. He asked me if I could pick him up earlier. 

The traffic on I-90 was very bad, so it even took me longer than expected to arrive at his dorm. It's raining, which even had the traffic worsened. When we arrived at home, it's already 7:15 PM.

Before I left office, a co-worker sent me a note to remind USA Men's National Team to take Canada tonight, so I started watching it after dinner. Team USA got several opportunities but hadn't capitalized until the last minute of the regulation. Altidore made a timely header after receiving a beautiful cross from Finley. Sounders' home grown Morris played a good match as well. 

I don't know why GOOGLE didn't have my clip uploaded yesterday, let me upload another one today. Leaving Sergel Torg was sad.

Patrick's Diary - 2/4/2016

Presidential candidates were either forced or motivated to grab more votes before New Hampshire Primary. Last Minute debates from both parties on different channels disclosed this truth. 

Unfortunately, it had become my routine of falling into sleep again after dinner due to exhaustion, so missed majority of the last Democratic Debate on MSNBC. However, I did catch the first topic entirely: Universal Health Care and Free College Tuition. I do care about these two issues, but honestly, my family is the beneficiary of current systems. It's fair to say that we may not benefit from any reformation. 

In terms of Health Insurance, I am covered by my employer's plan, though it has been less lucrative than before because I have 10% co-pay now, still a pretty good one compared to others, so is my son as my dependent. Any reformation could have our plan worsened because of adverse tax implications either on corporate or person, maybe both. You can tell, my son and I are covered by a comprehensive plan for health, dental and prescription drug.

My parents are covered by Medicare A, B and D, Washington State also provides additional assistance through a customized Medicaid Program. The plans cost our family very insignificantly, so any additional social welfare reformation may not do any better to us. Actually, my parents could apply to get plenty of free foods under current program but I never applied for them because I am helping the government to save the cost. I heard some seniors even can qualify monetary assistance on monthly basis but never spent time to find it out. 

My son goes to one of the best global universities according to US News, A World Report.

He is in 2nd Quarter of Sophomore year and has paid off the tuition for it. So far, he has paid tuition for five quarters, if he can graduate in four years, there will be 7 more quarters to pay. Let's use 5,000 bucks per quarter including escalation and books, it would be $35,000. Though it is significant in our family's budgets, I am able to handle it in the next two years. He never applied any scholarship or sponsorship at the college because we are helping the government in this regard too. His total tuition for the year of 2015 was:

However, as a citizen, I realize these are the critical issues for every American who belongs to average middle class or below. Not was my family covered by health insurance plans, we would file bankruptcy pretty easily. Did my son go to Ivy League, I would be broke pretty quickly. I would like to be a beneficiary of a well designed and implemented social welfare system, then I wouldn't worry about anything but enjoy the life. 

Gopro's stock price was dragged under 10 bucks, which became a significant barrier. It tried to get back to double digits but never succeeded during the trading session. In addition to other negative comments and analysis from various firms, one analyst from another firm exaggerated that camera can't compete with smartphone, and might even imply it to be replaced by smartphone eventually. First of all, smartphone is not created for camera, it is only one of the functions for users' convenience, so smartphone can't own all sophisticated features technologically and economically; Secondly, Photo snapping and video taking on smartphone are not private. Without sharing in public domain, such as social media platforms, the contents have been snatched by smartphone manufacturers, cell phone network carriers and public domain owners. If you want to keep something private or protect your own intellectual properties, you have to use unhooked cameras. I don't think I ever shared this clip online, so no one probably watched this before because I took it on camera instead of my smartphone. This was in Skansen Open Air Museum on 7/20. The girl waved her hand to me while singing beautiful song with her partner for the kids. I noticed her partner seemed asking her who I was, she answered because she apparently knew. Actually, my next destination was Abba Museum where was only 1 kilometer away from Skansen. Should I go to watch Eurovision 2016, I would keep all photos and clips in my own camera. 

I plan to go to gym at 5 am where I haven't gone for almost two weeks due to the cold. I still can sleep two more hours. 

Patrick's Diary - 2/3/2016

It's a pretty intensive day again, so I came back home tired again. Though I had planned to follow Democratic Town Hall up through the end, I fell into sleep before Sanders' Q&A would end, so missed most of the parts of Clinton's. Waking up almost at the end of this Town Hall, I heard Clinton to deliver her speech as smoothly as usual. It's such a familiar process and environment for former First Lady, Secretary of State and NY Senator. Earlier, I caught Sanders' answers to several questions, one was how to fund his universal health insurance plan and college tuition plan and if these plans would be better off for paying higher taxes; Another was his view on religions he dodged. Sanders did bring new ideologies to the table, the key now is the solutions and implementations. 

Gopro released the worst earning for Q4 you could ever imagine. I don't know how much worse its stock price performance could be in future. To me, it's really bottomed. According to its release I briefly glanced, part of the reasons of loss was driven by one time charge of products realignment. They are trying to simplify their product lines. They still have pretty strong cash positions and have generated pretty healthy operating cash flow. As I have shared that NHL and PGA Tour either renewed or established partnerships with GoPro, if they could expand customers' base within significant global sports organizations, their growth in action-camera sector will still be tremendous. As they indicated that they would do something at Super Bowl. In addition, their camera can be utilized more broadly into less intense sectors to expand its customer bases if they can formulate customized strategies. For example, it is very convenient to record driving experiences while traveling and very practical for beautiful memories of intimacy. Its inventory balance has been reduced due to holiday season shipments and write-off. This actually clears up a potential operational issue. I don't think they carry much debt but will take a deep look. They have bought back shares at an averaged price of 23 bucks and they may be able to do it at much lower prices later. However, their focus of using cash are in R&D and Marketing. I would expect their Hero 5 to be a decisive trigger of turnaround in 2nd half of the year. I found this clip on Youtube and this guy seems an expert of GoPro's products. If Hero 5 with dual camera will be priced at 800 to 1000, it will be a high margin business if GoPro can release this product with their magic. If they can extend it to Virtual Reality, they may achieve their goals in expanding the scope of businesses broadly. I bet there are a lot of opportunities to grow in Product Development, Marketing Strategies and Financial Management with limited risks for GoPro.

After reading their full financial for Q4 and the year of 2015 in terms of Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Statement of Cash Flow, I will write up my own 2016 projection. You can't rely on their current most conservative guidance after such a devastating quarter. 

I will heavily accumulate its January 20th, 2017 call at 10 bucks in the next 3 months and expect it fully turned around by October, 2016. Its price will be pushed down to single digit today and short-sellers will keep pushing it to penny. 

Patrick's Diary - 2/2/2016

It's all politically motivated, I assume. Yesterday, a rumor was spread that Twitter could be acquired but denied by PE firm later. This morning an idiotic firm downgraded it to sell with a PT at 14 bucks. Yesterday, another firm downplayed Gopro again. I will keep these records and show them in public in a year. It sounded M being so stubbornly consistent in the last 3 months. As I tweeted, I would see her to lose her last short in front of my newly purchased Hero4 Session wrapped around my head.

Coming back home early, I stopped by Safeway to refill my mom's medication. While waiting for it, I walked around to grab ham and canned soups for my lunch in the office. Five folks were working at the pharmacy today, apparently, it's a busy day. 

I had two small checks I hadn't deposited for quite a while, so decided to stop by Bank of America to do it today. A lady walked me to ATM to show me how to deposit by using my debit card, which was very convenient. I had known it could be done like that but never learned how to do it before. 

Arriving at home close to 4 PM, I watched Trump defending his loss in Iowa for several minutes, then turned onto NBCSN to watch NHL game. As I shared, I would watch two or three games a week. It's fun. 

Today, Florida Panthers vs. Washington Capital was being televised. At the beginning, fans were pretty quiet. Florida had dominated the game until the 3rd session. After host caught 2 goals up, fans started being cheerful. However, visitors won 5 to 2 at the end.

After brief dinner, I came back to my bed to keep watching the commentaries for New Hampshire Primary on CNN. There were so many debates amongst political analysts. Anyway, I will follow up Democratic Town Hall tomorrow thoroughly. 

Patrick's Diary - 2/1/2016

The first day of February, I left home at 6:00 AM in the darkness and came back home at 7:00 PM in the darkness. 

After dinner, I started watching Iowa Caucus on CNN. It's a surprise to me that Cruz won Iowa, it sounded like he won because of 60% of Iowans being evangelical.

Falling into sleep from time to time, I happened to catch Rubio's exciting speech because he ranked 3rd but considered it a victory by himself. Yes, politics is about expectations. The outcome for him well exceeded expectations. The more importantly, Jeb Bush most likely would be out of the race in near future, his supporters might shift to Rubio, so might the money. 

Trump was undoubtedly very disappointed in losing Iowa. He tried to cover his emotions when he delivered a speech to his supporters. I was sure he miscalculated the consequence of not attending the last debate on Fox News to avoid Megyn Kelly. A winner never dodged any embarrassing situation and was always prepared to turn it into own benefits. Establishing Republicans set him up in this case. However, Trump had always been questioned as a serious candidate. 

The race was so close between Clinton and Sanders. Though former First Lady claimed the mathematical victory, Sanders was going to bring the momentum to New Hampshire where he was deemed to win according to the poll. I believe the next phase of global development is to have all advanced economy ascending to Modern Socialism, but there are two reasons I don't support Sanders at this stage: 

1. I supported Clinton in 2007 and think Americans owing her a Presidency;
2. I don't know if Sanders truly understands the theories, practices and mechanisms of Socialism.

Nowadays, Socialism vs. Capitalism is no longer the comparison of different political system but economics applications. If Sanders is seriously to implement his so-called Democratic Socialism, he must have a full spectrum of Socialistic Economics theories, applications and mechanisms to support his political policies. Currently, this comprehensive system doesn't exist even academically due to citizens' fears in each advanced economy.